INTR13-306 & INTR71/72-306 Prospects for International Relations

by Dr Rosita Dellios, Associate Professor of International Relations

The Department of International Relations, SHSS, Bond University, Queensland, Australia
 

I 'Who?' - The Social Scientists

Definition of Futures Studies: "An activity which embraces many elements - prediction, conjecture, imaginative exploration and normative projections." (1)

Futures Studies as a Multi-Disciplinary Social Science Spanning International Relations

Futures Studies has become part of the set of specialisations to be found within the discipline of International Relations (IR). IR does not have a monopoly on this field of inquiry (Futures Studies are, by nature, interdisciplinary), but IR does have its own particular research interest in Future Studies because of its intrinsic concern with the dynamics of the international political system.

This is what the author of one text, Warren Wagar, has to say about where the field of Futures Studies belongs and its role in the Social Sciences:

The History of Futurism

The field of Futures Studies is a relatively young field - a 20th century social science (as noted in the Hughes quotation above). Wagar names the English novelist H. G. Wells as the founding father of Futures Studies. (7) He goes on to place Wells in a historical context for this field of inquiry:

According to A. T. Mann:

Divination means 'from the divine', and is the process of arriving at the answer to a question by interpreting patterns created by nature or artifice, such as birds in the sky, the entrails of sacrificial animals, thrown bones or stones covered with strange images, the division of yarrow stalks or the laying of tarot cards. . . . The diviner is a conscious interpreter of divinatory images or information, and is guided by an understanding of patterns.(9)

Ancient Greece -

The Delphi Oracle ('oracle' meaning a type of intermediary):

Delphi Oracle was a very influential oracle who made predictions and announcements at the Temple of Apollo at Delphi. The Priestess of Apollo was named Pythia. A goat would be sacrificed and then Pythia would mount a tripod and sit. She would breath in intoxicating smoke while awaiting divine inspiration. When she entered a trance the priests would interpret the oracles from Pythia and then relay the answers to the seeker.(10)

The Yijing (discussed in Week 4) - besides acting as a philosophical text - is also an ancient Chinese system of oracular divination:

The iching [Yijing] does not give you specific answers to your questions but rather reveals patterns which helps you arrive at the answer you seek. Answers are given in 64 hexagrams of solid lines (yang) and broken lines (yin). These represent a state of being. You arrive at the answer you seek. . . . The traditional method is to toss a set of 50 yarrow sticks.

The iching dates back to around 2852 B.C. The Chinese emperor Fu-hsi developed a set of trigrams. Later on around 1143 B.C. the trigrams were doubled to hexagrams. The iching found its way to western culture in the 19th century.(11)
 

Pagan divination was supplanted, in the Western world, by biblical prophesy. The latter had a sense of linear time at the end of which lay "the terrible day of accounting, toward which all nations and all souls inexorably advance". (12)

A. T. Mann defines prophesy as:

Then came the secular idea of the general progress of civilization - made possible by advances in knowledge, education, good government and notions of social justice. This corresponds to the age of the Scientific Revolution and the Enlightenment (17th and 18th centuries). However, there is cultural and temporal bias in the way progress along linear time is viewed. As the UN book entitled, Reclaiming the Future, points out: "In past ages, in cultures such as Persia, Egypt, Iran and China, there was a sense of timelessness. The idea of progress being movement in time towards a better future is relatively recent..." (14)

An example of a culture that does not view progress as something that happens along linear time to the future is the Balinese culture:

The Golden Age perspective is the opposite of the Progress perspective.

4. Historicism

As to the fourth layer, historicism, it argues that "things are best defined not by their so-called natures, which are constructs of the human mind, but by their histories".(17) It, too, belongs to linear time. "Just as a belief in progress glorifies the future by making it the goal or purpose of human effort, so historicism glorifies the future by suggesting that the very essence of all phenomena, both human and natural, is their place in the flow of time." (18)

5. Social Sciences

The fifth stage in the evolution of Futures Studies is to treat the study of the future as part of the social sciences, a matter dealt with earlier in this lecture.
 

1970s Onwards

An accelerated interest in Futures Studies came in the 1970s. This was very much a product of increased awareness of the vulnerability of our ecosystem. Global issues of population growth, food production, environmental quality, availability of energy resources, and the gap between rich and poor, became matters of higher profile enquiry. (Why they did so is elaborated in Barry Hughes' book, World Futures, pp. 2-3.) Essentially, the reasons are: decreased intensity of the Cold War - and hence military issues; the ecological issues were perceived as reaching a danger threshold (especially, population and pollution) - we had to take note; the presence for the first time in history of a global data base - we could better assess our situation. (The upsurge of environmentalism in the '70s and the Club of Rome report noted below are covered on p. 27 in Wagar.)

Perhaps the best known of the 1970s Futures Studies reports is The Limits to Growth (1972), by Donella and Dennis Meadows, issued to the Club of Rome (an informal international association of about 100 people). The study used a computerised model of global development for projecting trends. It portrayed the future as gloom (the global regress perspective). As summarised and commented upon by Hughes:

II 'How?' - The Think-Tanks

Besides social scientists, as exemplified by Wagar and Hughes, who study the future as a professional interest, there are others who put into practice the social scientific methods for the purposes of government as well as business and economic planning. See the example attached (in hardcopy Lectures, Library Closed Reserve) on education planning: Guy Healy, 'The Future's Global and Not So Young', The Australian, 21 January 1998, p. 35. Another projection for education planning is the effect of the internet. See the article, Universities prepare for era of 'star professors', reproduced in the Issues section of this lecture block.

One popular organisational device for studying the future is the 'think-tank'. Think-tanks are research organisations which are traditionally associated with defence planning. They have now expanded to cover global issues such as the environment, peace, and the international economy.

Within nation-states, think-tanks may be independent of the government ('independent policy planning institutes' - IPPIs), quasi-independent (intermediate organsisations - IOs), or part of the government. Governments may - and often do - seek advice from the independent and quasi-independent organisations.

Independent Policy Planning Institutes (See also Appendix)

What makes independent think-tanks (or IPPIs) different from other policy oriented bodies - such as parties, interest groups, consultancy companies and government research organisations? The distinguishing characteristics of independent think-tanks may be listed as follows: (21) (It should be noted, however, that the boundary between independent and other think-tanks is not always clear.)

• Independence and Permanency

• Self determination

• Policy focus

• Publicness

• Modus operandi

According to Diane Stone who studied the phenomenon of think-tanks:

In Britain, the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA) was established in 1957 as an independent think-tank with an ideological line favouring free market economics. Non-partisan institutes - i.e. those which distance themselves from political opinions - are the Royal Institute of International Affairs and the Policy Studies Institute.

The United States equivalent of Britain's pro-free market IEA is the American Enterprise Institute which was established in 1943. Established on a non-partisan basis are the Brookings Institute, the Council on Foreign Relations and the Committee for Economic Development. An example of a left-wing IPPI is the Institute for Policy Studies, established in 1963. Reform-oriented liberal organisations are the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions which has been described as 'anti-establishment', and Ralph Nader's Center for the Study of Responsive Law.

In Australia, the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) was formed in 1943, and has promoted a mixture of free market and conservative thought. It is often identified with the Liberal Party.

Of an educational, non-partisan nature is the Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA).

Post-1970s partisan institutes are: the Centre for Independent Studies (CIS), the Australian Institute of Public Policy (AIPP) and the Centre of Policy Studies. Their policy prescriptions have free market overtones.

By comparison, the Evatt Research Centre, which has trade union ties, is ideologically more to the left.

The Sydney Institute, established in 1988, tries to be non-partisan by inviting representatives from all major political parties to its functions. In a similar vein, the Brisbane Institute began in the late 1990s.

Another relatively new think-tank, the Tasman Institute, came into the public arena in the early 1990s with its questioning of the Greenhouse Effect.

The internet has had a multiplier effect on think-tanks and their dissemination of information, opinion and calls to action. Among them is the Foreign Policy Research Institute <FPRI@AOL.COM>, with such recent (1998) papers as 'The Drama of Modern Western identity' and 'The Three Reasons We Should Teach History'.

Defence and foreign policy think-tanks, be they independent, quasi-independent or government

In the United States it has been the task of 'think-tanks' like the RAND Corporation to generate scenarios (which are later published) on which to base policy. The RAND Corp. was established in 1945 and became an independent company in 1948. The research it has undertaken has been influential in the formulation of American nuclear strategy. From the early 1980s, American military think-tanks have shifted in their methods to simulation analysis in the form of computerised games. (More on methods below.)

An example of a US Defence Department think-tank which has assessed the threat potential of China is the Office of Net Assessment. This is an internal Pentagon think-tank responsible for examining future threats to the USA's national security. RAND Corp., however, continues to give respected advice on these matters.

China has its equivalents of RAND. The Beijing Institute for International and Strategic Studies reports to the Ministry of National Defence. Its first report to be made public (assessing the Soviet military threat) came in 1981. A second defence 'think-tank', the Institute of Strategic Studies, was established in 1985 under the PLA Military Academy and now forms part of the National Defence University. In addition to these two strategic studies organisations are about a dozen foreign policy research institutes, including the Institute of International Studies, which reports to the Foreign Ministry, and the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, which does not come under the auspices of any particular ministry but advises policy-makers in both the State Council and the Communist Party Sectretariat. While it is known that about a dozen research institutes provide the Chinese Government with foreign policy analyses and strategic assessments, much of their work remains classified.

Chinese interest in Futures Studies, generally, is evident in their translation and publication of The Third Wave by Alvin Toffler and Sleepers, Wake, by Australia's then Minister of Science, Barry Jones, as well as a greater emphasis on think-tank style futures studies.

In other non-Western countries think-tanks are amply evident. Thus India has the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA); Indonesia the Centre for Strategic and International Affairs (CSIA); and Malaysia the Institute for Strategic and International Studies (ISIS).

In Australia, the Departments of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and Defence, as well as the Office of National Assessments, provide foreign policy and strategic assessments. The Office of National Assessments is not tied to a particular government department, but is set up to advise on Australia's strategic and economic regional environment. An example of an independent source is the Australian National University's research activities in the Centre for Strategic and Defence Studies.

In the business world think-tanks are a common phenomenon for strategic planning - 'strategic' meaning business strategy, rather than as it is understood in International Relations as pertaining to defence and security.

On the global scale, there is the Commission on Global Governance - a group of 28 leaders who, according to the Commission's homepage - http://www.cgg.ch/ - "have suggested ways to make the world a better place for all its people." Its report, Our Global Neighbourhood,

The first message is that the imagination is also part of what we call 'methods' - we employ it in a deliberate way to describe plausible futures. The imagination is also necessary to conceptualise a better future. Without knowing what we want of our future, how can we plan for it?

The second message tells us of the need to think far ahead, in a broad fashion, and in a complex way - that we take into account the implications of our planning. We are concerned with the realm of grand strategy rather than tactical expediency.

Taken together, we are urged to treat matters of fantasy, imagination and creativity seriously - they are precious research tools; and to take a committed stance to the future. This requires long-range thinking.
 

Short, Medium & Long Range

Short-range forecasting usually refers to futures of 5 years or less.

Medium-range forecasting - usually up to 15 years.

Long-range forecasting - usually 15 to 50 to 100 years from now.

Long-range is the one we concentrate on for Futures Studies

Why?

Other observations pertinent to long-term forecasting, and thus planning, are:(29)

• "Much long-term forecasting is concerned with the identification and clarification of broad trends and options..."
• "...long-term trends may be more open to influence through deliberate human action. Futures research is concerned with questions of 'Where do we want to go?' and 'How do we get there?' at least as much as 'Where are we going?' The last question is often only a precursor to the first.' This leads to -

Whether a researcher uses qualitative or quantitative methods, or a combination of both (as in scenarios which are assigned numerical values), it is important to establish the purpose of the enquiry. This gives direction in selection of method(s).

"Without a clear statement of purpose, it is difficult to determine which of the approaches to forecasting is most suitable to the issues at hand."(30)

How to forecast?

There are qualitative (usually subjective) and quantitative (usually more objective) methods of forecasting.

Pros & Cons

Both have their strengths and weakness for International Relations forecasting.

Qualitative methods rely on judgemental information.

Obviously expert opinion is useful because of greater in-depth understanding of the subject for which forecasts are being made. And quantitative methods - such as use of statistics and a more systemic application of data inputs - are useful in such issues as population growth in relation to available resources.

As for objections:

Qualitative -

EXAMPLE: Feeding China: Trend Extrapolation without Policy or technological Innovation (Or the dangers of quantitative analysis in the absence of qualitative thought)

China is the world's most populous nation. At 1.3 billion people it represents a fifth of humanity but farms only seven per cent of the world's arable land. Despite a strict and at times draconian population control policy, China's population is still growing. It is expected to grow to 1.4 billion in 2010 and, according to a 1996 'white paper' from China's Ministry of Agriculture, peak at 1.6 billion in 2030. The prospect of feeding so many people, people whose standard of living (and hence protein intake) is improving by each passing year of economic growth, is a daunting task. Already China has become the world's biggest consumer of red meat, with pork consumption rising from 7 million tons in 1978 to 30 million tonnes in 1994. Some observers depict China's population growth as exhausting not only its own but the entire planet's productive forces, predicting that in the process it would be responsible for elevating food prices and global inflation. This is a line of reasoning most notably pursued by a neo-Malthusian trend extrapolator, Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute in Washington. In his book, Who Will Feed China?, Brown predicts that by 2030 (the year of China's projected peak population), China's grain imports would amount to almost double the entire grain exports of the world in the early 1990s. (33)

In an article also titled, Who Will Feed China?, Vaclav Smil, of Canada's University of Manitoba, holds little hope of such an eventuality. He believes that "doubling of global grain sales during the next generation is extremely unlikely" and that:

Even if a relatively rich China could afford to buy increasing quantities of cereals on the world market, such purchases would not just lead to price rises in a handful of remaining countries exporting food, they would also gravely reduce, or virtually remove, the access of many poorer nations in Africa and Asia to grain deliveries from the four producers with substantial long-term export potential, the United States, Canada, Australia and Argentina. (34)

By 2000, bio-technological innovation came to the rescue in the form of Genetically Modified (GM) foods. The Chinese government decided to increase crop yields by planting pest-resistent crops. (36)
 

Examples of Methods

1. Projection and Tabulation (quantitative)

"The simplest methods of forecasting take a set of historical data and extrapolate it forward into the future. Ideally, the data should span a history at least as long as the time horizon to be forecast. But often this is not possible, in which case the method is better termed "projection". Some theory about the variable projected is always implicit, even in the most simple methods; for example, exponential projection of a variable assumes a constant rate of growth."(37)

Barry Hughes, author of World Futures, notes that the simple growth model is common for forecasting population levels. For economic forecasting he cites both qualitative and quantitative methods, focusing on the latter:

It "was designed to deal with cases where several experts are available to contribute and pool their opinions on some particular issue". Developed in the early 1950s for dealing with military estimations at the RAND Corporation, it has subsequently been used "in several thousand cases all over the world, covering such widely divergent subjects as educational reform, long-range corporate planning, the future of medicine, assessments regarding the quality of life, and public-sector planning at the highest levels".(39)

3. Cross-impact analysis is another qualitative method (except where there is a numerical prediction, even if only implicitly quantified - e.g. that social pressures are 'unacceptably large'(40)).

It is the "investigation of the various effects that trends have on one another"; a popular mode of analysis "because some of the hardest issues are polycentric policy problems - problems for which solutions have often unwelcome implications for other problems".(41)

Distinction between Delphi & Cross-Impact approaches -

5. Scenario construction

This method (quantitative and qualitative) can be viewed as a simulation exercise. It is a qualitative method because judgements are being made, but it calls upon 'quantitative' advice to help inform those judgements. It may also quantify its findings as a way of ordering scenarios from most likely and important to least likely and important.

This is an interesting and worthwhile method of forecasting because - at its best - it takes into account the dynamics of the international system being studied as well as intangible qualities like the 'perceptual filters' (e.g. historical, socio-cultural) of particular nations.

This is UNESCO's view of the scenario method:

Week 3's lecture, 'Forecasting in International Relations', provides a fuller account of the scenario method.
 

III 'Why?' - To make a better world, to stay competitive, to make money, to make an impression, to get a job, to appear relevant, to understand human destiny . . .

Social scientist Warren Wagar makes some pertinent observations as to the prevalence and value of Futures Studies.(47) Essentially, these are that Western civilization has always been curious about the future and it has devised different ways of probing it; and that for all its value to society (the need for reliable forecasting), it has its shortcomings - e.g. the inability to foresee the fall of communist Eastern Europe and the end of the USSR, or the depth of the Asian Crisis (1997-98).

Nonetheless, as noted in Wagar's Prologue, Futures Studies is a way by which we can serve future generations by leaving them a world worth living in. Futures Studies is, in the end, a prescriptive activity. It describes possible futures in order to prescribe the better ones to work for.

At a more immediate level of running insurance companies and businesses, it becomes necessary to conduct risk assessments and to place numerical values on the result. This translates to costs and benefits in dollar terms.

The whole notion of risk assessment takes on a personal and world era significance. Foremost British sociologist Anthony Giddens has invented a term for the way in which we as a society and as individuals, seek to extend our power and identity. He calls it "colonising the future".(48) A blatant example of an institution colonising the future is the share market through the practice of futures trading.(49) This is part of the all-powerful global market - one which nowadays can decide the fate of nations (as seen in the Asian Crisis). An everyday example of this idea of "colonising the future" may be found in the need to name a particular era, like a mountain, and thereby stake claim to it. Thus The Australian columnist, Duncan Campbell, suggests calling the first decade of the new century, 'O Zone' (pronounced 'Oh Zone'). He argues that it:

APPENDIX: A Sample of IPPI's and their internet sites

Commission on Global Governance

http://www.cgg.ch/

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, Washington) http://www.csis.org/

The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Inc.

(Cambridge, Massachusetts and Washington, D.C. IFPA is associated with the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University.)

http://www.ifpa.org/

Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)

http://www.aiia.asn.au/

Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS, Malaysia) http://www.jaring.my/isis/

The New America Foundation (Washington, DC)

http://www.newamerica.net
 
 

The following list was obtained from the Internet in January 2001:
 

Source: http://search.netscape.com/Society/Issues/Policy_Institutes

Cato Institute Promoting public policy based on individual liberty, limited government, free markets, and peaceful international relations. Thousands of studies and articles available online as well as streaming audio and video of institute events. Site updated daily.

Acton Institute for the Study of Religion and Liberty The Institute works with church leadership, educational institutions, and individuals in business or the ministry to promote an understanding of market principles and to encourage the economic freedom that creates opportunity for all.

The Allegheny Institute for Public Policy Pennsylvania-based Conservative think tank devoted to local issues.

The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research AEI is dedicated to preserving and strengthening the foundations of freedom--government, private enterprise, vital cultural and political institutions, and a strong foreign policy and national defense.

American Freedom Center A nonprofit public policy research and educational center dedicated to educating the public regarding the conservative cause.

Anderson Economic Group Provides public policy analysis for private, public and government sectors.

Annenberg Public Policy Center University of Pennsylvania think tank which studies issues of public policy and scholarly interest. Detailed calendar of lectures, conferences, and other events.

The Arab American Institute Provides leadership training and strategies in electoral politics and policy issues that concern Arab Americans.

Atlantic Institute for Market Studies Canadian think tank.

Bastiat Institute Explores the libertarian perspective on public policy.

The Beacon Hill Institute for Public Policy Research BHI is a free-market think tank based in Suffolk University Boston, MA. It studies the public policy areas of state tax policy, privatization, welfare reform, compassion tax credits, regulatory reform and other areas from a market perspective.

The Brookings Institution A private, independent, nonprofit research organization, Brookings seeks to improve the performance of American institutions, the effectiveness of government programs, and the quality of U.S. public policies.

Brownstone Policy Institute A Republican-oriented think tank in Brooklyn, New York.

Buckeye Institute for Public Policy Solutions Improving the lives of all Ohioans by promoting free market ideas and limited government.

C.D. Howe Institute Canadian economic and social policy think tank.

The Calvert Institute for Policy Research A non-partisan, educational institution dedicated to the research and propagation of solutions to Maryland state and local public-policy concerns based upon the principles of free markets and personal responsibility.

Canada West Foundation Aims at bringing Western perspectives to Canadian policy debates.

The Carter Center A nonprofit public policy center founded by Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter to fight disease, hunger, poverty, conflict, and oppression around the world.

Cascade Policy Institute Oregon based free market think tank.

Center for Public Justice A Christian independent civic education and public policyresearch organization

Center for Retirement Research Organization established in 1998 dedicated to the research and dissemination of retirement policy issues as well as to widening access to related data sources.

The Center for Strategic & International Studies A public policy research institution dedicated to analysis and policy impact. CSIS is the only institution of its kind that maintains resident experts on all the world's major geographical regions. It also covers key functional areas, such as international finance, U.S. domestic and economic policy, and U.S. foreign policy and national security issues.

Center for the Study of American Business CSAB is a public policy research institute analyzing critical issues facing American Business.

Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy (CSID) CSID is a membership-based non-profit and non-private (501-c-3) think tank dedicated to studying the relationship between Islam and democracy.

Center for the Study of Technology and Society A nonprofit research and educational organization which considers the social effects of technological change.

Center of the American Experiment A nonpartisan, tax-exempt public policy and educational institution based in Minnesota. Focus: improving education, reducing poverty & crime, strengthening economy/free market.

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities The Center is a research institute that conducts analyses on government policies and programs.

The Centre for Independent Studies Australia-based policy institute which emphasizes the role of the free market in an open society and other voluntary processes in providing many of the goods and services normally supplied by the compulsory methods of government.

The Century Foundation A liberal research foundation that undertakes timely and critical analyses of major economic, political, and social institutions and issues

Citizens for a Sound Economy Advocates market-based solutions to public policy problems.

Citizens Research Council of Michigan A privately funded, not-for-profit public affairs research organization.

Clare Boothe Luce Policy Institute Takes conservative ideas to young women and mentors them into effective leaders, and works to make parents preeminent in the education of their children.

The Claremont Institute The mission of the Claremont Institute is to restore the principles of the American Founding to their rightful, preeminent authority in our national life.

The Commonwealth Foundation Index A conservative, independent, non-partisan, non-profit public policy organization based in Pennsylvania that is committed to furthering the goals of free-market, libertarian, economic growth and individual opportunity.

Community Services Council - Newfoundland and Labrador A social development, research, planning and service organization, dedicated to citizen engagement and the promotion of volunteerism.

Competitive Enterprise Institute A conservative public policy organization dedicated to the principles of free enterprise and limited government.

Discovery Institute A non-profit, non-partisan public-policy center headquartered in Seattle, WA and focusing on national and international issues.

Dumont Institute New Jersey based free market think tank.

E.K.O.M.E. An independent institute promoting free-market economics and a strong Greek presence in international politics. Lists books, publications, and related links.

Economic Policy Institute Nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank that seeks to broaden the public debate about strategies to achieve a prosperous and fair economy, especially for middle and low income workers.

Employment Policy Foundation Homepage A research and education foundation whose purpose is to provide policymakers and the public with the highest quality economic analysis and commentary on U.S. employment policies affecting the competitive goals of American industry and the people it employs.

Ethan Allen Institute Home Page Vermont's free-market public policy research and education organization - a "think tank" for issues affecting Vermonters.

The Ethics and Public Policy Center Studies the interconnections between religious faith, political practice and social values.

Evergreen Freedom Foundation Advancing individual liberty, free enterprise and responsible government in Washington State and nationwide. Teachers vs. unions, health and welfare reform, the Taxpayer's Titanic.

Florida Monitor The Florida Monitor is the web site of the Florida Legislature's program evaluation office. Hundreds of policy studies and other research and information products are available for download. Topics evaluated include all aspects of Florida's state government.

The Fraser Institute The Fraser Institute was founded in 1974 to redirect public attention to the role markets can play in providing for the economic and social well-being of Canadians.

Free Congress Foundation A politically and culturally conservative think tank whose main focus is on the Culture War.

The George C. Marshall Institute Information on science and public policy issues (e.g. global warming, defense technology) for students, teachers, scientists, the media and lawmakers.

Georgia Public Policy Foundation A nonprofit, nonpartisan research and education foundation dedicated to keeping all Georgians informed about their government. Believes in limited government, private enterprise and individual responsibility.

Goldwater Institute's Lost Savings Meter An independent, nonpartisan, research and educational organization advocating public policy founded upon the principles of limited government, economic freedom, and individual responsibility

The Heartland Institute Chicago based think tank promoting public policy based on individual liberty, limited government, and free markets.

The Heritage Foundation A conservative think tank that publishes research on domestic, economic, foreign and defense policy.

Hoover Institution Hoover Institution is a think tank on the campus of Stanford University, dedicated to research in domestic policy and international affairs.

Hudson Institute Indianapolis-based internationally recognized public policy research organization that forecasts trends and develops solutions for governments, businesses and the public. Addresses domestic and international policy issues.

Independence Institute Conservative think tank.

The Independent Institute A nonprofit, scholarly research and educational organization which sponsors comprehensive studies on political economy.

Institute for Science, Technology and Public Policy Founded at Maharishi University of Management in Fairfield, Iowa, to identify, scientifically evaluate, and implement through public policy, promising new technologies and programs that offer practical solutions to problems facing our nation.

Institute for Women's Policy Research A non-profit organization dedicated to researching policy issues of critical importance for women. IWPR's policy areas include poverty and welfare, family and work, health care and domestic violence, and employment.

Interhemispheric Resource Center A nonprofit organization whose mission is to provide information and analysis that increase social and economic justice throughout the world.

International Center for Peace and Development The ICPD conducts research projects on a wide range of issues concerning global security, conversion of resources from military to civilian purposes, food security, employment, economic development, and the environment.

The James Madison Institute A Florida-based public policy research organization dedicated to promoting economic freedom, limited government, federalism, traditional values, the rule of law, and individual liberty coupled with individual responsibility

The Jerome Levy Economics Institute A nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic forecasting it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad.

The John M. Ashbrook Center for Public Affairs An academic forum for the study, research and discussion of the principles and practices of American constitutional government and politics.

Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies A U.S. national, nonprofit institution that conducts research on public policy issues of special concern to African Americans.

The Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy Think tank inspired by New Hampshire's traditional values of Yankee independence, limited government, and individual responsibility, focusing on state and local issues

Kansas Public Policy Institute Dedicated to the constitutional principles of limited government, open markets, and individual freedom and responsibility, serves as an independent source of information regarding public policy issues.

Kuyper Institute, The Political think tank sponsored by the Center for the Advancement of Paleo Orthodoxy. It focuses on applying biblical standards to politics, particularly House and Senate races.

The Locke Institute An independent, non-partisan educational and research organization. Named for the philosopher and political theorist John Locke (1632-1704), the Institute ascribes to his theory that society is based on natural law and that the individual is the ultimate source of political sovereignty.

Ludwig von Mises Institute An educational and scholarly center of the Austrian School of economics and classical liberalism. Founded in 1982, the Institute supports a free-market, private-property order, and opposes government power as economically and morally destructive.

Mackinac Center for Public Policy A nonpartisan research and educational organization devoted to improving the quality of life for all Michigan citizens by promoting sound solutions to state and local policy questions.

Manhattan Institute A nonpartisan, independent research and educational organization, whose goal is to develop and encourage public policies at all levels of government.

Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation A nonprofit, nonpartisan social policy research organization dedicated to learning what works to improve the well-being of low-income people.

McGregor Consulting Group Carries out research and education on a variety of issues: consumer, family and home economics education and peace, citizenship and human rights.

Morrison Institute for Public Policy An Arizona State University resource for objective policy analysis and expertise. The Institute researches public policy issues, informs policy makers and residents, and advises leaders on choices and actions.

The Nation Institute A liberal-left independently funded and administered organization, committed to a just society and the principles of the First Amendment.

National Center For Policy Analysis Conduct search for driving and traffic safety reports. Analysis and research from around the world available.

The National Center for Public Policy Research A conservative policy institute covering Congress, insider political information, the environment, regulations, legal reform, retirement security, Social Security, race relations, campaign reform, affirmative action and more.

National Institute for Labor Relations Research The Institute provides the supplementary analysis and research necessary to expose the inequities of compulsory unionism.

National Legal Foundation A non-profit Christian constitutional litigation firm and policy think tank committed to restoring America's Biblical foundations.

National Strategy Forum An education and research institution committed to enhancing public involvement in matters of national strategy. Forum programs and publications address national strategy in all its dimensions: diplomacy, security, economics, culture, history, geography, and politics.

Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development A policy-oriented research and consulting organization. Promotes international cooperation for security and ecologically sustainable development. Programs embrace both global and regional issues, with a focus on the Asia-Pacific region.

Nebraska Center for Policy Research Works to advance the development of free market, nongovernmental solutions to the various economic and social problems which our neighborhoods and communities face.

Nevada Policy Research Institute Nevada-based non-partisan and non-profit public policy research and education organization.

New America Foundation Attempts to bring exceptionally promising new voices and new ideas to the fore of America's public discourse and seeks to reshape our public debate by investing in outstanding individuals and ideas that transcend the conventional political spectrum.

Democratic Leadership Council The Democratic Leadership Council's (DLC) online community, an idea marketplace for the elected leaders at the forefront of the New Democrat movement, offering political commentary, policy analysis,and legislative ideas, along with discussion forums and email newsletters.

New Policy Institute A progressive, independent think tank, focusing on government policy for services, from health and education to finance.

The Ohio Roundtable Source for information on conservative public policy in Ohio.

Oregon Center for Public Policy Conducts research and analysis on a wide variety of topics with an emphasis on budget and tax policy as it affects low and moderate income Oregonians.

Pacific Council on International Policy A leadership forum bringing together "live wires" from around the Pacific Rim to exchange information and analysis on major international trends and policy choices. Based in Los Angeles, CA.

Pacific Research Institute San Francisco-based public policy think tank promoting individual freedom and personal responsibility.

Pioneer Institute a nonprofit, nonpartisan, Boston-based public policy research institute.

Policy.com: Think Tanks Annotated listing of web links for issues-oriented policy institutes.

Political Research Associates Monitors and analyzes the organizations, leaders, ideas, and activities of the US political right.

The Priorities Institute Explores regional land use planning, sustainable, carfree city design, 21st century constitutions, holistic indexing

Progressive Policy Institute A public policy center shaping the "Third Way" governing agenda.

Public Interest Institute A non-profit, non-partisan, public policy research organization located on the campus of Iowa Wesleyan College in Mt. Pleasant, Iowa. The Institute promotes the importance of a free-enterprise economic system and limited government in society based upon individual freedom and liberty.

Public Policy Forum A nonpartisan public policy research organization and good government watchdog.

Public Policy Institute of California A private, non profit organization dedicated to independent, nonpartisan research on California's economic, social, and political issues.

The Quixote Center for faith-based social justice Working for social justice inNicaragua and Haiti, equality in the Catholic Church, and an end to the death penalty.

R. Buckminster Fuller Institute Inspired by the principles articulated by Buckminster Fuller, BFI hopes to empower site visitors to see the big picture and exercise individual initiative so that everyone on board our Spaceship Earth can live abundantly and successfully on an ecologically sustainable basis.

The Rand Corporation Studies developments in many areas, including national defense, education and training, health care, criminal and civil justice, labor and population, science and technology, community development, international relations, and regional studies.

Footnotes:
 

1. McHale, quoted in United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Reclaiming the Future, Tycooly Publishing Ltd, London, 1986, pp.168-69.

2. Warren Wagar, The Next Three Futures: Paradigms of Things to Come, Praegar, New York, 1991, pp.19-20. In Library Reserve.

3. Barry B. Hughes, World Futures: A Critical Analysis of Alternatives, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, 1985, p. 4.

4. Davis B. Bobrow, 'Prospecting the Future', in Davis B. Bobrow (ed.), 'Prospects for International Relations: Conjectures about the Next Millennium', International Studies Review, Vol. 1, No. 2, Blackwell Publishers for International Studies Association, Summer 1999, p. 3.

'Purchasing power parity' has become a better known alternative method of calculation. Its acceptance is reflected in its inclusion the World Bank's 'World Development Indicators'. Thus PPP GNP is defined as "gross national product converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity rates. An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GNP as a U.S. dollar has in the United States" (World Bank, 'Size of the Economy', 2000 World Development Indicators, http://www.worldbank.org/). Or, as the East Asia Analytical Unit elaborates, PPP "refers to a method of comparing the size of economies using international price comparisons to reflect the relative domestic purchasing powers of currencies. Traditional ways . . . simply convert national figures on the size of a given economy, expressed in the local currency, to foreign exchange (usually US dollars) at the prevailing official exchange rate. This method has well-known shortcomings, including the fact that prices of services and other non-traded goods tend to be much lower in developing economies. As a result, PPP measures of developing economies are frequently higher than estimates based on exchange-rate calculations." (East Asia Analytical Unit, Asia's Global Powers: China-Japan Relations in the 21st Century, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra, 1996, p 111.)

5. Peter Ferdinand, 'East Asia's Economic Relations with the Rest of the World', in Armand Clesse et al., The International System After the Collapse of the East-West Order, Martinus Nijhoff, The Netherlands, 1994, p. 629, quoted in Bobrow, 'Prospecting the Future', p. 3.

6. Bobrow, ibid.

7. Wagar, The Next Three Futures . . ., p. 15.

8. Ibid., p. 17. Each of these "waves of futurism" is elaborated (pp. 17-20).

9. A. T. Mann, Millennium Prophesies: Predictions for the Year 2000, Element, Dorset, 1992, pp. 3-4. (Emphasis in the original.) See also http://www.paralumun.com/divination.htm for a list of activities categorised as divination.

10. http://www.paralumun.com/doracle.htm

11. http://www.paralumun.com/iching.htm

12. Wagar, The Next Three Futures . . ., p. 17.

13. Man, Millennium Prophesies, p. 4.

14. UNDP, Reclaiming the Future, p. 27.

15. Clifford Geertz, The Interpretation of Cultures, Basic Books, USA, 1973, p.334.

16. Ibid.

17. Wager, The Next Three Futures . . ., p. 19.

18. Ibid.

19. Hughes, World Futures . . ., p. 13.

20. Ibid., p. 15.

21. The following characteristics and their explanation are derived from Diane Stone, 'Think Tanks: The Nature and Role of Independent Public Policy Institutes', Conference paper, Australasian Political Science Association, Hobart, 1990, pp. 4-5. If you are interested I have a copy of this in my office.

22. R. K. Weaver, 'The Changing World of Think Tanks', PS: Political Science and Politics, Sept. 1989, p. 564.

23. Stone, 'Think Tanks . . .', p. 7.

24. http://www.cgg.ch/

25. UNDP, Reclaiming the Future, p. 41.

26. Ibid.

27. Ibid., p. 42.

28. UNESCO, The Cultural Dimension of Development: Towards a Practical Approach, Paris, 1995, p. 178. This book is in Library Reserve.

29. UNDP, Reclaiming the Future, p. 43.

30. Nazli Choucri, and Thomas W. Robinson (eds), Forecasting in International Relations: Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects, W. H. Freeman & Co., San Francisco, 1976, p. 9.

31. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, David Newman, and Alvin Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events: The Future of Hong Kong. Yale University Press, New Haven, 1985, pp. 13-14.

32. Ibid., p. 14.

33. Lester Brown, Who Will Feed China? Worldwatch Institute, Washington, 1995. See also Richard McGreggor, 'Beijing Propaganda Blast Defends Its Growing Appetite', The Australian, 8 May 1996, p. 11; and Michael Richardson, 'Timely Grain', The Australian, 12 July 1996, p. 25.

34. Vaclav Smil, 'Who Will Feed China?', The China Quarterly, No. 143, 1995, (pp. 801-813), p. 803. See also Vaclav Smil, China's Environmental Crisis: An Inquiry into the Limits of National Development, M. E. Sharpe, Armonk, NY, 1993.

35. Lester Ross, Foreword, in He Bochuan, in China on the Edge: The Crisis of Ecology and Development, China Books and Periodicals, Inc., San Francisco, 1991, p. x. Emphasis added.

36. On the debates over the wisdom of introducing GM crops, see the article attached in the hardcopy, Sid Marris, 'Hunger "Outweighs' GM Fears', The Australian, 22 January 2001, p. 2.

37. UNDP, Reclaiming the Future, p. 49.

38. Hughes, World Futures . . ., p. 91.

39. Olaf Helmer, 'The Use of Expert Opinion in International Relations Forecasting', in Choucri and Robinson, p. 118.

40. UNDP, Reclaiming the Future, p.46.

41. Charles W. Kegley, Jr and Eugene R. Wittkopf, World Politics: Trend and Transformation, 3rd edn, Macmillan, London, 1989, p. 499, footnote, 4.

42. Helmer, 'The Use of Expert Opinion . . .', p. 119.

43. Choucri and Robinson, Forecasting in International Relations . . .

44. Now there is a book on the subject, which is even more ambitious that mere defeat by China. According to the MSANEWS Home Page: http://msanews.mynet.net/ from Ohio State University, "World War 3 - The Night, The Angels Cry" details America defeat by Iraq, China, and the United Nations - available from Zeus Publications at http://www.zeus-publications.com

45. UNESCO, The Cultural Dimension of Development, pp. 178-9.

46. There are various conscious ways of doing this. Edward de Bono's books are a good reference for thinking skills. Interdisciplinary thinking - which de Bono also favours - is also an excellent way of gaining fresh ideas and perspectives on the matter being investigated.

47. Wagar, The Next Three Futures . . ., p. 29.

48. Anthony Giddens, Modernity and Self-Identity: Self and Society in the Late Modern Age, Polity Press, Oxford, 1991, see especially pp. 111, 129.

49. A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a good, share, or currency at a future date, at a price decided when the contract is entered into. See 'Currencies of Desire', New Internationalist, No. 306, October 1998.

50. Emphasis added. Duncan Campbell, 'Dawning of the Age of Noughts', The Australian, 21 January 1999, p. 11.
 

Copyright for original content:  Rosita Dellios 2001